Timothy Alexander Guzman, Silent Crow News – It was 89 seconds to midnight for the world to experience a global catastrophe at least according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. But that was in January, now it seems like that calculation has dropped down to 50 seconds with all of the recent developements in the Middle East. In the halls of Washington, D.C., the Pentagon, and in Trump’s inner circle, most believe that the US military with assistance from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) can defeat Iran in a full-scale war. Historically speaking, in the Vietnam war and most recently, the war in Afghanistan, the US military and its allies was convincingly defeated. Both wars cost trillions of dollars and achieved nothing but death and destruction, but they turned out to be a money-making bonanza for the Military-Industrial Complex. The US military lost many soldiers and other military personnel in these wars including those who have died in combat or those who were seriously injured, many veterans have committed suicide, many more still have Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Many veterans are also on the verge of becoming homeless on America’s streets at any given moment.
The delusional hubris suffered by Washington claiming that they have the best fighting force in the world is common among the political establishment because the US military is heavily armed with numerous deadly weapons including thousands of nuclear warheads at their disposal. The US also supplies the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with chemical, biological and radiological weapons including 2,000-pound bombs that has been used against the Palestinian people.
The US is still in Iraq, which technically is another lost war which did not achieve anything but chaos and division. Perhaps that was the plan in the first place. The US military command most likely knew that a war in Iraq cannot be won, it was designed to create destruction and chaos so that they can eventually target Iran without worrying about Iraq which had a formidable military at the time. In other words, young US soldiers, mostly from poor or working-class families were used as cannon fodder for geopolitical agendas especially for Israel to expand its territory without Iranian interference and for Big Oil to control Iraq’s oil with the continued use of petrodollars instead of euros.
However, Iran is in a different situation. They have been preparing for a war with the US and Israel for decades. They will not allow the US military to destroy their country.
War Games Tell a Different Story
In 2006, The CATO Institute published a Policy Analysis titled ‘The Bottom Line on Iran the Costs and Benefits of Preventive War versus Deterrence’ based on the outcome of a $250 million war game between the US and Iran:
During a $250 million war game called Millennium Challenge, a crafty Marine general, Paul Van Riper, was in the role of commander of the “red team,” the theoretical force opposing the United States in a conflict very much like that which the United States could face in the Persian Gulf. Van Riper used a low-tech strategy of suicide boats and aircraft, launching a sneak attack that killed thousands of U.S. sailors and sent 16 U.S. naval vessels to the bottom of the sea.
Joint Forces Command, which sanctioned the war game, then reset it, limiting the tactics Van Riper could use, and thus tipping the scales in the U.S. side’s favor. In protest, Van Riper quit his position as the commander of the red team. Describing his decision to step down, Van Riper remarked that his main concern was that “we’d see future forces trying to use [similar tactics] when they’ve never been properly grounded in any sort of an experiment”
In 2020, The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft also published a report on the US government’s march to war against a major military power in the Middle East, ‘The U.S. Can Only Lose in War with Iran’ by Mark Kukis, an analysis based on the Millennium Challenge war game led by Van Riper and the willingness of the US government to go to war with Iran. So, what does Kukis think about the idea of US forces by invading and possibly occupying Iran with the same strategy used by the US military to contain Iraq between 1991 and 2003? He said its “Utter Lunacy”:
The problem with war against Iran can be summed up easily enough. The idea of invading and occupying Iran to change the regime is utter lunacy. That would lead to a quagmire making the U.S. occupation of Iraq look like a skirmish. No one sane in Washington questions this reality, but many see limited war against Iran as an option. The idea would be to bomb Iran and its assets around the Middle East, cripple the economy with sanctions and work to foment a popular uprising within the country that could topple the regime. The model for this is the U.S. containment of Iraq from 1991 to 2003
According to the analysis, a retired Air Force colonel and a war game expert by the name of Sam Gardiner who had iniated multiple scenarios based on a U.S. attack on Iran gave an honest assessment which was a reality check for Washington, Gardiner said that “You have no military solutions for the issues of Iran. And you have to make diplomacy work.”
The Trump Regime thinks that it can force Iran to abandon its nuclear enrichment program, but Iranian officials have been clear from the start, they will not give in to Washington’s demands to dismantle their nuclear program. CNN ‘Iran warns US nuclear talks will fail if enrichment demand stands’ reported that “An Iranian official has warned that nuclear talks with the United States “will not actually get anywhere” if Washington insists Tehran abandons enrichment of uranium – a process that can also be used to make a bomb.” Trump is demanding a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, but that is not possible. Tehran has repeatedly stated that their nuclear program is solely intended for peaceful energy purposes.
Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi has made it clear once again, “Regarding zero enrichment, we said from the beginning that if this is their (American) position, it is natural that the work will not actually get anywhere” he continued “Our position on enrichment is clear, and we have repeatedly stated that enrichment is a national achievement for us,” added Ravanchi. We will not back down on the issue of enrichment.”
The talks will ultimately fail, with that said, Israel wants the US military to attack Iran. Al Jazeera, a Qatar based news network published a report titled, ’Iran says will hold US responsible for any Israeli attack on nuclear sites’ which is based on Iran’s warning said that “The United States would be held responsible in the event of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister has warned, after CNN reported that Israel could be preparing strikes.” Qatar should know what’s at stake since they are complicit in assisting US military bases for many years including the Al Udeid Air Base, a large US military base that can accommodate up to 10,000 U.S. troops on its soil, and they even kissed Trump’s ass by giving him a luxury jet plane. There are several US military bases that are close to Iran and all of them would be hit with numerous missiles and drones if the US were to launch an attack. Iran would obviously target Israel, its main enemy, with hundreds of missiles, thus permanently ending its ambitions to dominate the Middle East.
All these scenarios would cause a major economic disaster for the global economy since the price of oil would skyrocket in the event of a war. So, the question is, would Trump greenlight an attack on Iran for Israel? Hopefully he would reject starting a new war, but with all of his recent threats towards Iran, it seems unlikely.
Iran’s Military Capabilities
Iran has over 1 million active, reserve, and paramilitary forces. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army or the Artesh has four branches including the Air Force, Navy, Air Defense Forces and Ground Forces. Then there is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who has its own naval, ground and air units including the well-known elite, Quds Force.
If Israel or the US decided to bomb Iran, more than 50 million Iranians would join the fight in an instant.
Despite US sanctions, Iran produces its own weapons domestically including various types of ballistic, cruise and even hypersonic missiles, a large fleet of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) commonly known as drones and most importantly, Surface-to-Air Missile systems (SAMs).
One of Iran’s most effective weapons is the Sejjil missile, a report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) which can be found in their ‘Missile Threat’ website describes the Sejjil missile as a “two-stage, solid-propellant, medium-range ballistic missile domestically designed and built by Iran.” When CSIS analysis describes the Sejjil missile as a threat in their website, you know Iran is doing something right. They describe it as follows:
The Sejjil missile has a length of 18 m, a diameter of 1.25 m, and an overall launch weight of 23,600 kg. It can deliver a payload of around 700 kg to its 2,000 km range. Presumably the missile will carry HE warheads until Iran gains nuclear warheads. The missile’s maximum range is about 2,000 km, though these figures are based upon a missile fuselage with the weight and performance characteristics of aeronautical-grade steel
There are several other missiles that can inflict heavy damage to nearby US bases, its navy fleet and Israel including the Fateh-110 has been developed into one of the premiere missiles that can hit targets with pinpoint accuracy. Fars News published a report in 2012 and claimed that “Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said that the newly unveiled Fateh-110 missile is among the most precise ground-to-ground ballistic missiles with unique pinpoint capability.”
Vahidi said that the “Fateh-110 is a solid-fuel ballistic missile with a key role in enhancing Iran’s defense capability in recent decade” he continued, “The pinpoint capability in all weather conditions, longer durability, longer durability in standby position after being deployed on the launch pad, lower time for pre-launch or launch-time tests, shorter firing and takeoff time are among the key capabilities of the missile.”
These are just some of the weapons in Iran’s arsenal. The Defense Intelligence Agency’s 2019 assessment ‘Iran Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance’ admits that Iran has the largest missile force in the Middle East:
Iran has the largest missile force in the Middle East, with a substantial inventory of close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs), short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) that can strike targets throughout the region as far as 2,000 kilometers from Iran’s borders. Iran is also developing land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which present a unique threat profile from ballistic missiles because they can fly at low altitude and attack a target from multiple directions
The Tehran Times recently published, ‘An army built on drones,’ top commander affirms as Iran unveils new UAV technologies’ based on Iran’s advanced drone capabilities:
The new models—Homa, Dideban (Watchdog), and Shahin-1 (Falcon-1)—were showcased during a ceremony at the Army’s drone and air base in the southeastern city of Zahedan, underscoring Iran’s push to build a self-reliant, tech-driven military.
Equipped with vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capabilities, the drones can switch to fixed-wing flight for greater range and efficiency. Designed entirely by Iranian engineers, the aircraft combine agility, intelligence, and precision to perform a wide range of reconnaissance and offensive missions
UAV technologies are an important component of Iran’s military. Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari, Commander of the Army Ground Force said, “We’ve invested heavily in developing UAVs—from micro drones to large aerial platforms—because our vision is to build a force centered around these technologies” he continued, “They allow us to meet the operational needs of tomorrow’s battlefields with greater speed and power.”
The Tehran Times article describes the new drones just mentioned in detail, “the Homa drone can fly above 12,000 feet, is equipped with night vision, and doesn’t require a runway—making it ideal for stealth reconnaissance in electronic warfare environments. The Dideban is a compact, portable UAV with all-day visibility and multi-target monitoring capabilities. It’s designed to fly in coordinated swarms, enhancing battlefield intelligence and precision.”
Then there is the Shahin-1 which is described as “a fast, first-person view (FPV) suicide drone intended to eliminate fixed and mobile targets with high maneuverability and lethal accuracy.”
Iran has thousands of these drones that can be used at a moment’s notice, so does the Trump regime really believe that US and Israeli forces are prepared to face Iran’s weapons of war?
The Importance of Iran’s Air Defense Systems
Not only ballistic missiles and UAV technology are essential to Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities, but advanced Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) and its radar systems are also an important part of Iran’s defensive strategy to counter US air power.
The US military has conducted numerous air bombing campaigns throughout its long history of endless wars, for example, the Korean War (1950-53) and in the Vietnam War. An analysis published in The Asia-Pacific Journal’ by Ben Kiernan & Taylor Owen ‘Making More Enemies Than We Kill? Calculating U.S. Bomb Tonnages Dropped on Laos and Cambodia, and Weighing Their Implications examined the number of bombs dropped in both wars:
During the Korean War of 1950-53, the U.S. dropped 635,000 tons of bombs and 32,000 tons of napalm, mostly on North Korea. And from 1961 to 1972, American aircraft dropped approximately one million tons of bombs on North Vietnam, and much more on rural areas of South Vietnam — approximately 4 million tons of bombs, 400,000 tons of napalm, and 19 million gallons of herbicides
The US-led war on Iraq also began with an air bombing campaign. According to the US Air Force, “Desert Storm’s accounting is well known. The U.S. and its allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs over a six-week period that preceded the ground campaign. The air bombardment was so successful that the ground campaign was over in 100 hours.” That was just in Desert Storm.
Then came the 2003 invasion of Iraq. According to Iraqbodycount.org, between 187,499 and 211,046 Iraqi civilians have been killed since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Most deaths were also due to the US-led coalition’s air bombing campaign.
This is why Iran has invested its time and energy on developing its air defense systems, they know the history of the US military engaging in air bombing campaigns just like they did in Korea and Vietnam:
Iran operates a diverse array of SAM and radar systems intended to defend critical sites from attack by a technologically superior air force. Operational since 2017, Iran’s Russian-provided SA-20c long-range SAM system is the most capable component of its integrated air defense system (IADS). Iran is also fielding more-capable, domestically developed SAM and radar systems to help fill gaps in its air defenses
*In an important note, the US military has more than 14,000 military aircraft and that alone should be a concern knowing their history of aerial bombardments during major wars.
Iran has developed new SAM systems that can repel such attacks. Recent developments of the Bavar-373 is described in army-technology.com as “an indigenous surface-to-air missile defence system developed by the Iranian Defence Ministry. It can intercept aircraft and drones as well as destroy high-speed ballistic missiles.” The Bavar-373 has “an impenetrable, anti-hacking surface-to-air missile defence system comprising a vertical launching system, two acquisition and engagement radars, Sayyad-4 missiles, and a command-and-control centre.”
Back in 2019, an indigenous air defense system was developed by the Iranian Ministry of Defense called the Khordad 15 which “is a domestically produced Iranian medium-to-long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system developed by Iran’s defense industry. It is designed to counter a variety of aerial threats, including stealth aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).”
Iran has many other air defense systems including the Russian-made S-300, another long range surface-to-air missile system. There are several other SAM systems available for Iran’s defensive posture.
If the US and Israel were to attack Iran, it would start bombing from the skies in hopes of crippling Iran’s defenses and then they would send in ground troops which would be a suicide mission, but that is what the US military would likely do because they would be following the same plan they used during the invasion of Iraq. This time, it won’t work.
Iran Has Been Preparing for War with US-NATO-Israeli Forces since 1979
Iran has all types of tanks, air defense artillery systems and combat vehicles including a formidable navy with frigates, submarines, patrol boats, aircraft, and the list goes on.
But, besides Iran’s arsenal of advanced weaponry, it is the strength of the Iranian people. They will not allow for their country to become another Iraq or Libya. The Iranian people are ready for a war. They have been preparing for decades.
So an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would have severe consequences, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards spokesperson Alimohammad Naini issued a warning that if Israel and the US attacks Iran, they would receive a “devastating and decisive response” he continued, “They are trying to frighten us with war but are miscalculating as they are unaware of the powerful popular and military support the Islamic Republic can muster in war conditions.”
This is a warning to the US warmongers in Washington, DC and Tel Aviv, a warning that they should take very seriously.
